Kalshi Nears $200B in Trades as Trump Jr.’s Lobbying for Markets Surfaces
Kalshi is set to hit $200B in trading volume as prediction markets expand into MLB sponsorships, with new details on political lobbying of state regulators.
This article was produced with AI assistance and edited by the ON360 newsroom.
U.S. prediction-market operator Kalshi was set to cross $200 billion in cumulative trading volume on August 28, according to data cited by tracking service TickerTracker and reported by Gambling Insider. The company launched in July 2021, and that figure is expected to double to $400 billion within five months as the North American football season ramps up.
Kalshi now holds an 85 percent share of the fast-growing prediction-market sector, per data from The PM Scoreboard. The exchange lets users trade contracts on sports outcomes and other events, a model that regulators and courts in the United States are still fighting over.
Trump Jr. lobbied state attorneys general
The New York Times reported this week that Donald Trump Jr. promoted prediction markets to Republican state attorneys general at a retreat in New Orleans in March. The event took place at the Ritz-Carlton, according to the report.
Forty-four attorneys general belong to a bipartisan coalition opposing what they call federal overreach in prediction-market regulation, a dispute centred on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s handling of sports event contracts. Trump Jr. has a known financial stake in the industry, and Gambling Insider notes his remarks add to perceptions of close ties between the Trump family and the sector.
MLB deals, NFL holdout
Kalshi has signed sponsorship agreements with five Major League Baseball clubs: the Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants. Gambling Insider reports the company described the deals as “exclusive,” though the outlet says that characterization appears exaggerated.
Three of the five teams play in California, a state without legal sports betting, giving Kalshi room to operate without competition from licensed sportsbooks. The National Football League, by contrast, renewed marketing partnerships with DraftKings and FanDuel roughly two weeks before its regular season opener and has kept prediction-market operators out of those deals entirely.
Sharp bettors chase exchange liquidity
Professional bettors are shifting activity toward exchanges as regulated sportsbooks limit their accounts. A bettor known online as Sigma Squirrel told InGame that sharp players could earn up to 100 times more through prediction markets this season than last, citing large liquidity on historically beatable lines such as NFL Monday games and NBA overnight markets.
Separately, InGame reported that sports insurer Game Point Capital placed block trades worth $300,000 to $900,000 on Louisiana State University reaching various stages of the College Football Playoff. The trades, totalling up to $3 million in potential payout, were structured to hedge bonuses in head coach Lane Kiffin’s contract, a tactic Game Point previously used for South Carolina.
None of this activity is licensed under Canadian gambling law. Ontario’s regulated market, run through the AGCO and iGaming Ontario, treats single-event sports contracts as gambling products requiring provincial licensing, a distinction Canadian regulators have reinforced as U.S. prediction markets expand south of the border. Players in Ontario using regulated sportsbooks retain access to deposit limits and self-exclusion tools that exchange-style products do not typically offer.
Related: Canadian Regulators Keep Sports and Entertainment Betting Out of Prediction Markets
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