Casino Giants, Congress and Courts Close In on Prediction Markets
AGA chief Bill Miller led G2E criticism of sports event contracts as courts, Congress and the CFTC separately escalate scrutiny of the sector.
This article was produced with AI assistance and edited by the ON360 newsroom.
Casino industry leaders used the Global Gaming Expo (G2E) in Las Vegas this week to sharpen their attack on prediction markets, even as separate pressure built in Washington and before the U.S. Supreme Court. American Gaming Association (AGA) President and CEO Bill Miller told the conference that sports event contract operators are exploiting a regulatory “back door” that sidesteps state licensing, taxation and Tribal gaming agreements, according to Gambling Insider.
Miller argued the sector’s recent legal losses suggest its strongest run may be over. The comments came during a G2E session that also featured Nevada Gaming Control Board Chairman Mike Dreitzer, MGM Resorts Chief Compliance Officer Stephen Martino, attorney Daniel Wallach and AGA Vice President Tres York.
Executives split on the sector’s future
MGM Resorts CEO Bill Hornbuckle said his company had been approached about entering prediction markets but turned the offer down, citing regulatory and licensing concerns. Caesars Entertainment CEO Tom Reeg went further, warning that weak oversight could produce “something awful” that tarnishes the wider gaming industry’s reputation.
Wynn Resorts CEO Craig Billings struck a more measured tone. He said Wynn has no stake in the debate, though he conceded that wider access to betting could eventually benefit Las Vegas.
A separate panel widened the opposition beyond the casino floor. UNITE HERE President Gwen Mills, Mashantucket Pequot Tribal Nation Chairman Rodney Butler and Rep. Steven Horsford joined Miller to discuss a coordinated industry response touching jobs, Tribal sovereignty and regulatory authority.
Courts, Congress and the CFTC all circling
The Supreme Court is weighing whether to hear one or more prediction-market cases ahead of its 2026-27 term. The New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement petitioned after the Third Circuit sided with Kalshi, while Robinhood and Crypto.com filed their own petitions following a Ninth Circuit ruling in August that rejected their preemption arguments in Nevada. The justices have not yet agreed to take up any of the cases.
On Capitol Hill, the House Oversight Committee is expanding its insider-trading probe into the sector. Chair James Comer sent letters this week to Hyperliquid, Crypto.com and Aristotle Exchange/PredictIt seeking details on identity verification and controls meant to catch trading on nonpublic information. The committee’s broader investigation into Kalshi and Polymarket began in May and has already collected close to 1,000 documents across five briefings, CNBC reported.
The CFTC, meanwhile, is reportedly preparing a review of prediction-market promotional programs over concerns some incentives mislead traders, according to Front Office Sports. No companies have been named. In August the agency had already warned exchanges that incentive schemes remain subject to Commodity Exchange Act rules, flagging marketing around “risk-free” trades, unlimited rebates and guaranteed profits as potentially problematic.
Kalshi eyes $40B valuation
Even amid the scrutiny, Kalshi is reportedly in advanced talks to raise roughly $1 billion at a valuation near $40 billion, Reuters reported. Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management are said to be discussing leading the round, with Tiger Global and Dragoneer Investment Group also considering participation.
That would mark a sharp jump from Kalshi’s $22 billion valuation after a $1 billion raise in May. Reuters also reported the company wants to expand beyond prediction markets into a broader trading platform that would compete with CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange.
For Ontario operators and regulators watching from a safe distance, the U.S. fight underlines how prediction markets continue to blur the line between derivatives trading and sports wagering. Canada’s regulated iGaming channel, including Ontario’s AGCO-licensed market, has not faced the same federal jurisdictional clash so far this year.
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